印度的污染正日益成为经济发展的绊脚石 India’s pollution is becoming an economic roadblock

AROUND THIS time each year Delhi experiences a brief but magical spell. Spring arrives, gardens erupt in blossom, and for a week or two the sky even turns blue. The city’s 30m people stop obsessing over the toxic pollution, believing that the air is breathable(ish) once more.

It is not. Delhi’s air pollution is a year-round problem. In 2024, the last year for which official data are available, the city did not record a single day in the “good” air category and just 65 in what the government calls “satisfactory”.

The problem is expanding geographically, too. Indians outside the north may soothe themselves with the notion that “at least the air is not as bad as in Delhi”. But that is like taking Afghanistan as a baseline for women’s rights. In Kolkata, in the east, the famed Howrah Bridge is often invisible. In Mumbai, on the western coast, the skyline vanishes behind the haze. Even in the south, where the air is typically cleaner, particulate matter blocks the sun and, quite literally, clogs the arteries.

The reasons for India’s widening air-pollution crisis are many. A big one is the growing ownership of motor vehicles. Poor traffic management causes stop-and-start gridlock, exacerbating emissions. Never-ending road-building and a nationwide construction boom produce enormous quantities of dust. Brick kilns feeding this boom from the edges of cities add to the smoke.

The costs are adding up. Some 1.7m people in India die annually from causes related to bad air, according to the Lancet—an appalling figure. At Davos last month Gita Gopinath of Harvard noted that the economic impact of pollution is “far more consequential” than that of American tariffs. She is right. In 2019 a report by Dalberg, a consultancy, estimated the annual economic loss attributable to air pollution at 3% of GDP. Donald Trump’s tariffs of 50%, briefly imposed but now relaxed, in contrast lowered India’s GDP by 0.6%, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. Yet tariffs spark immediate policy responses; pollution does not.

Instead, the government plays down the problem. A junior health minister recently told parliament that there is “no conclusive data” linking pollution to death and disease, instead suggesting that the “health effects of air pollution are [a] synergistic manifestation of factors”. The latest budget, delivered on February 1st, cut funding for pollution control.

Smoking provides a useful analogy. Smokers know about long-term health risks. They know, too, that it is an expensive habit. But these are abstract concerns. Unseen economic losses are likewise easy to ignore. Fixing the pollution problem is too difficult, its advantages too far in the future, its electoral benefit too amorphous.

Yet there are plenty of signs that abstract economic concerns are becoming concrete business ones. In a recent filing Shoppers Stop, a chain of department stores, blamed pollution for “reduced consumer mobility and discretionary spending” in the last quarter of 2025. The CEO of Vishal Mega Mart, a supermarket chain, said in an earnings call that “the air-quality issue in north India” had affected consumption growth in the same quarter. Many countries now issue travel advisories warning their citizens about the hazard of pollution in India, which is affecting tourist arrivals. Hundreds of flights are cancelled across north India each winter as pollution causes visibility to plummet.

Businesses are finding it harder to attract and keep talent. In December an Indian executive at a pharmaceutical firm resigned because of Delhi’s pollution. Foreign executives decline jobs in India for the same reason. Last year Bryan Johnson, a visiting venture capitalist, walked out of a podcast recording citing poor air quality.

It is all getting embarrassing. In December a cricket match between India and South Africa was called off because smog made it impossible to see the ball. In January one of the world’s top badminton players pulled out of the India Open in Delhi, citing the bad air (getting a $5,000 fine). Those who did play sent an official complaint to the International Olympic Committee.

What eventually causes a smoker to quit? In many cases, it takes a health scare. The chronic needs to become terrifyingly acute. Something similar is now happening to India’s economy. Pollution is having a direct effect on consumption, growth and thus on Narenda Modi’s often-stated ambition to make India a rich country by 2047. If that doesn’t convince India’s leaders to take action, nothing will.