Macron turns to English-speaking Africa

HE COOKED WITH a Kenyan influencer and ran with Eliud Kipchoge, a long-distance runner. He even danced to a live performance of Jerusalema, a South African hit. Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Kenya from May 10th to May 12th certainly felt different. Indeed it was the first time France has held an Africa summit in an English-speaking country. After bruising recent setbacks in Francophone Africa, the French president is trying to shape a different link between France and the continent.

他和一位肯尼亚网红一起做饭，还和长跑名将埃鲁德·基普乔格（Eliud Kipchoge）一起跑步。他甚至伴着南非热门歌曲《Jerusalema》的现场演唱跳起了舞。埃马纽埃尔·马克龙5月10日至12日的肯尼亚之行，确实给人一种耳目一新的感觉。实际上，这是法国首次在一个英语国家举办非洲峰会。在近期于法语非洲遭遇惨重挫折后，这位法国总统正试图在法国与这片大陆之间塑造一种与以往不同的纽带。

The English-speaking African leaders present seemed happy to join the club. For Kenya the summit offered a chance for William Ruto, the president, to play regional leader. He pushed, as usual, for a permanent seat for Africans on the UN’s Security Council and for credit reforms to encourage investment in Africa. Mr Macron has invited him to the G7 summit next month in Evian.

与会的英语非洲国家领导人似乎很乐意加入这个俱乐部。对肯尼亚来说，此次峰会为总统威廉·鲁托（William Ruto）提供了一个扮演地区领导者的机会。他像往常一样，呼吁为非洲国家争取联合国安理会常任理事国席位，并推动信贷改革以鼓励对非投资。马克龙已邀请他参加下个月在埃维昂（Evian）举行的七国集团（G7）峰会。

Instead of focusing on aid, the summit put business at the centre of what Mr Macron and Mr Ruto called a “partnership of equals”. They signed over $1bn in bilateral deals, including an $820m joint venture to revamp a port terminal in Mombasa, on the Kenyan coast. Accor, a French hotel chain, is backing ten Nigerian hotels. Eutelsat, a French satellite company, is expanding broadband in 20 African countries.

此次峰会并没有把重点放在援助上，而是将商业置于马克龙和鲁托所称的“平等伙伴关系”的核心位置。双方签署了价值超过10亿美元的双边协议，其中包括一项耗资8.2亿美元、用于改造肯尼亚沿海蒙巴萨（Mombasa）一个港口码头的合资项目。法国连锁酒店集团雅高（Accor）正为尼日利亚的10家酒店提供支持。法国卫星公司欧洲通信卫星组织（Eutelsat）正在20个非洲国家拓展宽带业务。

Other African leaders also went to talk business. Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s president—who has visited France 12 times in the past three years—brought along leading entrepreneurs. Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, hinted at plans for a giant oil refinery in Kenya. In total €14bn ($16.5bn) of French public and private investment and €9bn of African investment were signed off. That includes pledges that may not come to pass and plans that were already public. But it is still significant. The UN puts foreign direct investment inflows to Africa at just $59bn in 2025, despite increasing interest from China and the Gulf.

其他非洲领导人也去洽谈商业合作了。尼日利亚总统博拉·蒂努布（Bola Tinubu）——在过去三年中曾12次访问法国——带来了一批顶尖企业家。非洲首富阿利科·丹格特（Aliko Dangote）暗示计划要在肯尼亚建设一座大型炼油厂。峰会总共签署了140亿欧元（约合165亿美元）的法国公共和私人投资，以及90亿欧元的非洲投资。这其中包含了一些可能无法兑现的承诺以及早已公开的计划。但这依然具有重大意义。联合国指出，尽管中国和海湾国家对非洲的兴趣与日俱增，但2025年流入非洲的外国直接投资仅为590亿美元。

Since he was elected in 2017, Mr Macron has tried to move away from an Africa policy weighed down by post-colonial baggage and widely criticised by a younger African generation. On his watch, France has returned cultural artefacts from museums to Senegal and Benin, reset relations with post-genocide Rwanda and reformed its role in running a currency shared by west African countries. Anglophone alliances seem to be paying off. A new Ipsos poll suggests that 93% of Kenyans and 90% of Nigerians have a good image of France, far more than in French-speaking countries.

自2017年当选以来，马克龙一直试图摆脱被后殖民时代包袱拖累、且被非洲年轻一代广泛批评的对非政策。在他的任期内，法国已将博物馆中的文化文物归还给塞内加尔和贝宁，重塑了与大屠杀后卢旺达的关系，并改革了其在管理西非国家共同货币方面的角色。与英语国家的结盟似乎正在取得成效。益普索（Ipsos）的一项新民调显示，93%的肯尼亚人和90%的尼日利亚人对法国抱有良好印象，这一比例远高于法语国家。

Yet the shift has been halting, and at times a fiasco. Mr Macron has presided over a forced retreat from the Sahel, where France used to conduct a long-running counter-terrorism operation. After coups had installed hostile regimes that turned to Russia for security instead, France was kicked out of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (none of which were invited to the summit).

然而，这种转变一直是断断续续的，有时甚至是一场彻底的失败。在马克龙治下，法国被迫从萨赫勒（Sahel）地区全面撤退，那里曾是法国长期开展反恐行动的据点。在政变上台的敌对政权转而寻求俄罗斯的安全保护后，法国被马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔扫地出门（这三个国家均未受邀参加此次峰会）。

In Nairobi Mr Macron claimed that France had felt “no offence”, but that Mali’s coup leaders had “not taken the best decision for their country”. Jihadists recently took control of swathes of the north from Malian and Russian forces. Yet few seem to regret France’s departure. “It’s not because the Russians have failed that the image of France has improved,” says Ladji Ouattara, head of Observatoire du Sahel, a research body.

在内罗毕，马克龙宣称法国并未感到“被冒犯”，但马里的政变领导人“并没有为他们的国家做出最佳决定”。圣战分子最近从马里和俄罗斯军队手中夺取了北部大片地区的控制权。然而，似乎很少有人对法国的撤离感到遗憾。“法国形象的改善，并不是因为俄罗斯人失败了，”研究机构萨赫勒观察站（Observatoire du Sahel）负责人拉吉·瓦塔拉（Ladji Ouattara）如是说。

Mr Macron’s trip this week was about charting a new path. But it also felt like a farewell tour. He cannot constitutionally stand for re-election in 2027. In some African quarters he, and his tendency to scold, will not be missed. But his successor could be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella from the populist right. Talk of partnership could swiftly give way to diktats limiting visas and migration.

马克龙本周的访问意在开辟一条新路。但这感觉也像是一场告别之旅。根据宪法，他无法在2027年竞选连任。在非洲某些地区，人们不会想念他，也不会想念他那种喜欢说教的做派。但他的继任者可能是来自右翼民粹阵营的玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）或若尔当·巴尔代拉（Jordan Bardella）。关于伙伴关系的空谈，可能会迅速让位于限制签证和移民的严苛法令。