South Korea is still haunted by its disgraced ex-president

YOON SUK YEOL’S imposition of martial law in late 2024 lasted only a few hours. Those implicated in the South Korean ex-president’s plot will pay the price over many years. His prime minister received a 23-year prison sentence for his role in the debacle last month. On February 19th a court sentenced Mr Yoon to life imprisonment for leading an insurrection. While opting against the prosecutors’ request for the death penalty, the presiding judge still chastised Mr Yoon for resorting to “violent means” to “undermine democratic norms”.

尹锡悦（Yoon Suk Yeol）在2024年底实施的戒严令虽然仅仅维持了几个小时，但那些卷入这位韩国前总统阴谋的人，却将在漫长的岁月里为此付出代价。上个月，他的总理因在这场闹剧中扮演的角色而被判处23年有期徒刑。2月19日，一家法院以领导叛乱罪判处尹先生终身监禁。尽管审判长没有采纳检方提出的死刑请求，但他依然严厉谴责了尹先生诉诸“暴力手段”来“破坏民主规范”的行径。

The case against Mr Yoon appears to be clear-cut. Yet his actions created deep cleavages on the South Korean right. His former right-of-centre party, the People Power Party (PPP), has split into two warring factions. Defenders of the disgraced standard-bearer insist that, given obstructionism by the opposition in parliament, he was within his rights to impose martial law and send troops to seize the National Assembly and raid the election commission. These self-proclaimed “Yoon Again” forces seek to make such beliefs a litmus test for PPP leaders. Others argue that martial law is fundamentally unacceptable in a rich democracy with a painful history of military dictatorships. This faction—one might call them the “Yoon Never Again” group—wants to cut off all ties with the former president.

针对尹先生的案件似乎已板上钉钉。然而，他的所作所为却在韩国右翼阵营中引发了深深的裂痕。他曾经所在的中右翼政党“国民力量党”（PPP）已分裂为两个水火不容的派系。这位名誉扫地的旗手的捍卫者们坚称，鉴于反对党在议会中的百般阻挠，他完全有权实施戒严，并派兵接管国民议会、突袭选举委员会。这些自封为“拥尹派”（Yoon Again）的力量，试图将这种信念变成检验国民力量党领导人的试金石。而另一些人则认为，在一个曾经历过军事独裁痛苦历史的富裕民主国家里，戒严从根本上来说就是不可接受的。这一派别——人们或许可以称之为“倒尹派”（Yoon Never Again）——则希望与这位前总统彻底划清界限。

The divide amounts to an identity crisis within the country’s conservative movement, and the fissures within it appeared from the start of the episode. On the night of the martial-law declaration, the then-leader of the PPP, Han Dong-hoon, broke with the president and rushed to parliament to help block him. “I thought this was anti-democratic and must be stopped,” Mr Han recalls. Yet most PPP parliamentarians boycotted a vote to overturn martial law and refused to impeach the president. When it came time to select a candidate for snap presidential elections last June, the PPP opted not for Mr Han, but for Kim Moon-soo, a minister in Mr Yoon’s government who had refused to apologise for martial law. Mr Kim lost decisively to Lee Jae Myung of the left-leaning Democratic Party (DP). Following the defeat, the PPP’s leader in parliament resigned, calling for a reset of the party.

这种分歧无异于该国保守主义运动内部的一场身份危机，而裂痕其实从事件伊始就已显现。在宣布戒严的当晚，时任国民力量党党首韩东勋（Han Dong-hoon）与总统决裂，并火速赶往议会协助阻止他。“我认为这是反民主的，必须加以制止，”韩先生回忆道。然而，大多数国民力量党议员却抵制了推翻戒严令的投票，并拒绝弹劾总统。到了去年6月为提前举行的总统大选挑选候选人时，国民力量党并没有选择韩先生，而是选择了曾拒绝为戒严令道歉的尹政府部长金文洙（Kim Moon-soo）。结果，金先生在选举中惨败给了左倾的共同民主党（DP）候选人李在明（Lee Jae Myung）。败选后，国民力量党在议会中的领袖引咎辞职，并呼吁对该党进行重组。

The Yoon Again faction has nonetheless maintained the upper hand. The PPP’s current leader, Jang Dong-hyuk, has been a staunch defender of the ex-president, even as the party’s standing with the public has plummeted, with its support wallowing below 25%. Leaders of the Yoon Never Again wing have come under attack as traitors. Mr Han was recently expelled from the party. “Many people are trapped in partisan frameworks, prioritising political battles over safeguarding democracy,” he told The Economist before his expulsion.

尽管如此，“拥尹派”依然占据着上风。国民力量党的现任党首张东赫（Jang Dong-hyuk，音译）一直都是这位前总统的坚定捍卫者，哪怕该党在公众中的声望已跌入谷底，支持率更是惨淡地徘徊在25%以下。“倒尹派”的领导人们则被指责为叛徒并遭到群起攻之。韩先生最近也被开除出党。在被开除之前，他在接受《经济学人》采访时表示：“许多人都陷入了党派斗争的窠臼，将政治博弈置于捍卫民主之上。”

Far-right online commentators have fuelled the Yoon Again movement. Jeon Han-gil, a former history teacher, exploited his massive YouTube following to become a conservative kingmaker. After Mr Jang hinted at changing course slightly, Mr Jeon issued an ultimatum; the party leader felt obliged to back down. Such figures blend conspiracy theories about election fraud, anti-communist rhetoric aimed at China and North Korea, and evangelical Christianity. Their followers, who gather for regular protests in downtown Seoul, have adopted the iconography of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, donning hats emblazoned with “Make Korea Great Again” and chanting “Stop the Steal”.

极右翼网络评论员更是推波助澜，助长了“拥尹”运动的声势。曾是历史教师的全汉吉（Jeon Han-gil，音译）利用其在YouTube上的庞大粉丝群，一跃成为保守派阵营里的“造王者”。在张先生暗示要稍微改弦易辙后，全先生立刻下达了最后通牒；迫于压力，这位党首只能选择退让。这类人物将关于选举欺诈的阴谋论、针对中国和朝鲜的反共言论，以及福音派基督教信仰糅合在了一起。他们的追随者定期在首尔市中心举行抗议集会，甚至照搬了唐纳德·特朗普“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的视觉符号，戴着印有“让韩国再次伟大”的帽子，高呼着“停止窃选”的口号。

Yoon Never Again conservatives see pandering to an ever more extreme base as a sure-fire way to alienate the broader public. “How could Yoon Again be the future?” Mr Han laments. More than 60% of South Koreans believe the declaration of martial law amounted to insurrection. Continuing to stand by the disgraced president after the court ruling will not help: a similar share of the electorate thinks the PPP should not embrace supporters of Mr Yoon. Renaming itself, as the PPP plans to next month, is unlikely to hoodwink voters. The first electoral verdict will come during local elections in June, when the country chooses its governors, mayors and municipal legislators.

“倒尹派”的保守人士认为，迎合日益极端的基层选民注定会疏远更广泛的公众。“‘拥尹派’怎么可能代表未来？”韩先生感叹道。超过60%的韩国人认为宣布戒严无异于叛乱。在法院做出判决后，继续与这位名誉扫地的总统站在一起也于事无补：同样比例的选民认为，国民力量党不应再接纳尹先生的支持者。正如国民力量党计划在下个月所做的那样，仅仅改个名字是不太可能蒙骗选民的。选民们的首次裁决将在6月份的地方选举中见分晓，届时该国将选出各道知事、市长以及市级议会议员。

Until the two factions resolve their strife, the right will remain weak and divided. A hapless opposition will, in turn, mean a freer hand for Mr Lee and the DP. When the PPP criticises the current president, “the public doesn’t seem to care,” says Kim Yong-tae, a PPP member of parliament in the anti-Yoon camp. “They seem to perceive it as a party that championed martial law.” That is not healthy for democracy either. Mr Yoon’s corrosive legacy will last far longer than his truncated presidency.

在两派解决纷争之前，右翼阵营将依然保持虚弱和分裂的状态。而一个倒霉透顶的反对党，反过来则意味着李先生和共同民主党可以更加放开手脚地施政。当国民力量党批评现任总统时，“公众似乎根本就不在乎，”身处“倒尹阵营”的国民力量党议员金容泰（Kim Yong-tae，音译）无奈地表示。“在他们眼里，这似乎就是一个曾拥护过戒严令的政党。”这对民主来说也绝非好兆头。尹先生留下的有毒政治遗产，其持续的时间将远远超过他那被草草腰斩的总统任期。